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Assessing the effects of climate change and its foresight on agriculture in future periods
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Azadeh Arbabi Sabzevari *   1, MAHSA FARZANEH |
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Abstract: (5294 Views) |
The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in evapotranspiration and to predict the agricultural sector in the northern part of Zahedan station, the central part of Iranshahr station and the southern part of Chabahar station, taking into account climate change. Also, the effect of management on planting date on reducing the negative effects of this phenomenon was investigated.
After testing the LARS-WG model, the climatic components in three meteorological stations of Zahedan, Iranshahr, Chabahar and under three scenarios A2, A1B and B1 in HadCM3 model until 2060 with the base period of 1987-2020 were scaled. Based on the root mean square error statistics and model efficiency coefficient, the LARS - WG model had sufficient capability in simulating minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation parameters. Significant increase in temperature reduces the length of the growing period in different stages between one to 20 days, which will reduce the water requirement of wheat between 4.45-0.05. Although postponing the planting time intensifies the effect of climate change and reduces the length of the growing season by 10 to 23 days, it will increase the water requirement between 1.29 and 774 cubic meters per hectare. Due to these climatic conditions for future periods, farmers are not able to control the climatic conditions, but proper management and change in factors such as crop yield and optimization of cultivation pattern in accordance with the climate of the region and awareness of current and future climatic conditions. It can play an important role in reducing the harmful effects of climate change on the growth and yield of agricultural products and sustainable food production, and comprehensive planning and resource management is an important step towards sustainable development. |
Article number: 7 |
| Keywords: Climate change, Water needs, Agriculture, Southeastern Iran, LARS - WG model |
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Full-Text [PDF 1898 kb]
(278 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2021/04/20 | Accepted: 2022/01/11 | Published: 2023/10/2
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