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Future research of informal settlements using scenario-based planning approach A case study of Tabriz metropolis
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MAHMOOD Parvinzad1   , Reza Valizade * 2, Karim Hosseinzade dalir3 , Hasan Ahmadzade2 |
1- PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
2- Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
3- Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Marand Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran |
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Abstract: (492 Views) |
| Informal settlement is one of the undesirable consequences of urbanization in the contemporary world, which is formed as a result of rapid industrialization and regional inequalities, and due to the deprivation and lack of urban life facilities in these settlements compared to other areas. Urban has made them the center of acute urban issues and problems and against sustainable human development. The current situation of informal settlements shows that the plans, forecasts and measures taken to solve the problems of this phenomenon, especially in the metropolis of Tabriz, have not been so effective, so that the expansion of informal settlements in this city itself is a proof of this claim. For this purpose, in this research, it has been tried to systematically identify and analyze the key drivers affecting the formation and expansion of informal settlements in the metropolitan area of Tabriz. The research method in the present study is mixed (quantitative-qualitative) with analytical-exploratory nature. In this research, 64 primary factors were extracted in five different areas and analyzed through structural analysis in Mic-Mac software using the Delphi and environmental scanning techniques. Based on the results, eighteen main factors have been identified as key drivers in the formation and expansion of informal settlements in the region. In the next stage, with qualitative analysis, these 18 factors were classified into macro and economy axes. After compiling the scenario, in total, three favorable scenarios, intermediate or static scenario and critical scenario (disaster), were obtained as very strong scenarios with high probability of occurrence for the future of informal settlements in Tabriz metropolis. |
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| Keywords: Future studies, key drivers, scenario, informal settlements, Tabriz |
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Full-Text [PDF 1357 kb]
(130 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2022/12/10 | Accepted: 2023/05/21 | Published: 2024/07/24
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