[Home ] [Archive]   [ فارسی ]  
:: Main :: About :: Current Issue :: Archive :: Search :: Submit :: Contact ::
Main Menu
Home::
Journal Information::
Articles archive::
For Authors::
For Reviewers::
Registration::
Contact us::
Site Facilities::
::
Search in website

Advanced Search
..
Receive site information
Enter your Email in the following box to receive the site news and information.
..
:: Volume 15, Issue 51 (11-2015) ::
جغرافیایی 2015, 15(51): 263-279 Back to browse issues page
Prediction of Climatic Parameters Using LARS-WG Model in Qare-suClimate change impacts are very dependent on regional geographic features and local climate variability. Impact assessment studies on climate change should therefore be performed at local or at most at the regional level for the evaluation of possible consequences. However, climate scenarios are produced by Global Circulation Models with spatial resolutions of several hundreds of kilometers. For this reason, downscaling methods are needed to bridge the gap between the large scale climate scenarios and the fine scale where local impacts happen. A stochastic weather generator, however, can serve as a computationally inexpensive tool to produce multiple-year climate change scenarios at the daily time scale which incorporate changes in both mean climate and in climate variability. In paper, LARS-WG model were used to downscale GCM outputs and then assessment of the performance were done for generated daily data of precipitati
Abstract:   (7798 Views)

Climate change impacts are very dependent on regional geographic features and local climate variability. Impact assessment studies on climate change should therefore be performed at local or at most at the regional level for the evaluation of possible consequences. However, climate scenarios are produced by Global Circulation Models with spatial resolutions of several hundreds of kilometers. For this reason, downscaling methods are needed to bridge the gap between the large scale climate scenarios and the fine scale where local impacts happen. A stochastic weather generator, however, can serve as a computationally inexpensive tool to produce multiple-year climate change scenarios at the daily time scale which incorporate changes in both mean climate and in climate variability. In paper, LARS-WG model were used to downscale GCM outputs and then assessment of  the performance were done for generated daily data of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature and sunshine hours. Study area is Ghare-su basin in Gorgan and the station is called Gorgan synoptic station. The first step is running the model for the 1970-1999 period. Then mean of observation and synthetic data were compared. T-test was used in the 95% significance level, and the difference between observation and synthetic data was not significant. Finally monthly mean of observation and synthetic data were compared using Statistical parameters such as NA, RMSE & MAE. As  a final result, it is found that performance of model is appropriate for generating daily above listed data in Ghare-su basin. So, it is possible to predict the climatic parameters from GCM output using LARS-WG model. Also minimum and maximum temperatures have highest and sunshine hours have lowest correlation.

Keywords: Climate change, Climatic scenarios, Downscaling, LARS-WG, Qareh-Su.
Full-Text [PDF 792 kb]   (1 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2015/11/5 | Accepted: 2015/11/5 | Published: 2015/11/5
Add your comments about this article
Your username or Email:

CAPTCHA


XML   Persian Abstract   Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Prediction of Climatic Parameters Using LARS-WG Model in Qare-suClimate change impacts are very dependent on regional geographic features and local climate variability. Impact assessment studies on climate change should therefore be performed at local or at most at the regional level for the evaluation of possible consequences. However, climate scenarios are produced by Global Circulation Models with spatial resolutions of several hundreds of kilometers. For this reason, downscaling methods are needed to bridge the gap between the large scale climate scenarios and the fine scale where local impacts happen. A stochastic weather generator, however, can serve as a computationally inexpensive tool to produce multiple-year climate change scenarios at the daily time scale which incorporate changes in both mean climate and in climate variability. In paper, LARS-WG model were used to downscale GCM outputs and then assessment of the performance were done for generated daily data of precipitati. جغرافیایی 2015; 15 (51) :263-279
URL: http://geographical-space.iau-ahar.ac.ir/article-1-2033-en.html


Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Volume 15, Issue 51 (11-2015) Back to browse issues page
فضای جغرافیایی Geographic Space
Persian site map - English site map - Created in 0.18 seconds with 37 queries by YEKTAWEB 4657